Getting the UK electric vehicle sector into the fast lane

British car manufacturing history is dominated by iconic vehicles like the original Mini and the Jaguar E-Type. Both are recognised and associated with British manufacturing across the world. The only electric vehicle (EV) produced in the UK is the Nissan Leaf, not a brand high on the list of cars people know Britain makes. Nor do people see the UK as a leader in the EV revolution, that credit goes to California, the birth place of Elon Musk’s Tesla.   

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, wants this to change by “cement[ing] the UK’s position as a world leader in the low emissions and electric vehicle industry”. This aspiration has been joined by a commitment from Environment Secretary, Michael Gove, to phase out fossil-fuelled car sales in the UK by 2040. Unfortunately, neither will be enough to put Britain in the lead. But moving forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars ten years, from 2040 to 2030, would be a game changer.  

We need a strong EV market at home

The UK is somewhere in the middle of the pack in the global EV market. In 2017, Germany overtook us for the first time in EV sales, and China manufactured over half of all EVs worldwide. At the same time, other countries are committing to more rapid phase-outs of fossil fuelled cars, with Norway planning a 2025 phase out and Scotland setting a 2032 target. A 2030 UK target would help to strengthen the domestic market, supporting UK based EV manufacturers to grow and bringing down costs.

Green Alliance has quantified the benefits. More rapid phase out of petrol and diesel vehicles will have health and environmental benefits: cutting carbon dioxide emissions, air pollution and noise pollution. Economic upsides would be a reduction of the UK automotive trade deficit and halving oil imports by 2035. Estimated oil cost savings associated with a drop in vehicle imports could be as high as £6.63 billion a year by 2035.    

A twin track approach to phase out by 2030

2030 is only 12 years away, so the UK needs to move quickly. We propose a twin-track approach to get there building on two key cost points: whole life and upfront costs.

The first track focuses on shifting government and private fleets from internal combustion vehicles to EVs, until EVs achieve upfront cost parity, expected in 2022. EVs are already cost effective for fleet managers who can take advantage of their lower lifetime operating costs. Private fleets make up over half of all new sales in the UK, and it is estimated that EVs could save company car owners £7,400 over three years.

Once upfront cost parity has been reached, the focus can shift to the second track, managing the phase-out of diesel and petrol cars run by the wider population. By introducing a zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, domestic manufacturing can be aligned with demand. If this mandate is combined with clean air zones, similar to London’s ultra-low emission zone, it will help to boost EV sales among those driving into cities regularly.

Whether all of this means the world will start to associate Britain with EV manufacturing remains to be seen, but it would be an excellent start for a nation aspiring to lead the revolution.

Bente Klein is a Policy Assistant at the environmental think tank Green Alliance

The views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue

Can aviation be sustainable?

The UK has the largest aviation network in Europe, contributing more than £22 billion to the UK economy and directly providing hundreds of thousands of highly-skilled jobs. It ensures the links that enable people to work, to learn and to explore the world.

In 2016 over 250 million passengers travelled on an aircraft in the UK, and further growth is expected over the coming years. However we recognise that our activities impact the global and local environment. If we are to grow, we must do so in a sustainable way.

Sustainable Aviation is a coalition of airlines, airports, aerospace manufacturers and air navigation service providers working together to achieve sustainable growth, reduce noise and CO2 emissions, improve air quality and secure the benefits to society that aviation undoubtedly brings.

At the end of 2017 we launched a report outlining the progress we have made over the previous two years. It showed that we have successfully disconnected UK aviation’s rate of growth from that of carbon emissions and are on track to delivering our target to halve net CO2 emissions by 2050, compared with 2005 levels.

How will we achieve our targets?

Technology will play a central role. The UK is a world leader in aerospace manufacturing, and since 2005 470 new, more fuel-efficient aircraft entered service with UK airlines, saving at least 20 million tonnes of CO2. We have seen a further 2% increase in aircraft fuel efficiency since 2014. UK aerospace manufacturers are continuously investing in the cutting-edge technology for the even more fuel-efficient aircraft of the future.

Sustainable aviation fuels also have the potential to play an important role in achieving the UK’s ambition to reduce carbon emissions from transport. Our road map identifies the potential for a 24% reduction in aviation carbon dioxide emissions, the generation of £265 million in economic value and the creation of 4,400 jobs in the UK over the next 15 years, with between five and 12 operational plants producing sustainable fuels by 2030. Many of these initial sustainable fuels can be made from waste products, including non-recyclable household waste, offering the potential to address two issues at once.

Our airspace is little changed since it was designed in the 1960s. It does not allow us to maximise the innovative technology that is on today’s aircraft. Since 2014, 90,095 tonnes of CO2 have been saved through incremental changes to the structure of UK airspace. However, a wider, more fundamental redesign is needed to enable a reduction of up to 14% in CO2 emissions.

Market based measures will also support the delivery of our target. Between 2012 and 2015, six million tonnes of CO2 emissions reductions were made by UK airlines through the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Our members have also long been advocates of an industry-wide carbon deal for aviation, and fully support the new carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation (CORSIA) agreement reached by the UN body, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). It means that from 2021, airlines will be required to pay to reduce CO2 emissions through qualifying offset projects around the world, capping net CO2 emissions at 2020 levels.

Our vision for the future

Over the course of this year we will set out our vision for aviation in 2050 and beyond, looking at the innovative and emerging technologies on the horizon which could have a potentially transformative effect on our industry, including electric-hybrid aircraft.

Ours is an innovative and vibrant industry, and we continue to explore new thoughts and ideas from both within and outside.

We can’t achieve sustainable growth without the support and action of government. The industrial strategy and aviation strategy are good opportunities for government to take a proactive approach in this area. We urge the government to be ambitious and positive about what the industry can achieve, and how it can continue to support our economy.

Dr Andy Jefferson is Programme Director at Sustainable Aviation

The views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue

End of the line? Phasing out diesel-only trains

Last week, the Government announced its the ambition to remove diesel-only trains from the tracks by 2040. With public concern about air pollution and transport’s contribution to climate change continuing to rise, we consider the different options for phasing out diesel trains and some of the benefits.

Cleaning the tracks

Diesel trains contribute to both air pollution and climate change, with 29% of trains in service on the UK’s rail network currently running on diesel. Overall, the transport sector has largely failed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions as part of efforts to tackle climate change. In rail specifically, greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 30% since 1990 in absolute terms. Similarly, significant levels of harmful air pollution have been recorded both on-board, and in the vicinity of, diesel-only trains. In fact, when in 2015 London Paddington station was in breach of healthy pollution limits, the air quality inside the station was found to be significantly worse than outside.

In this context, the Rail Minister Jo Johnson MP’s speech this week challenged the rail industry to publish a long-term strategy - aimed at facilitating substantial pollution and emission reduction - by the autumn of 2018. Government policy has for a long time aimed at the full electrification of the rail network, whereby conventional engine-based propulsion is replaced by electric – both overhead and third-rail – traction systems. However, such plans have had a troublesome journey.

Electric dreams

In 2009 the then Labour Government announced the first large-scale electrification plans, including schemes on both the North West and the Great Western main line. The Coalition Government continued these proposals, modifying them to include the Midland main line and other schemes.

However, in June 2015 the Secretary of State for Transport paused the Trans-Pennine and Midland main line electrification schemes. Both were subsequently resumed in September 2015 with delayed completion dates. It was argued that the focus should be on delivering the Great Western upgrade on time and on budget.

In November 2016, delays to works on four areas of the Great Western line were announced. Subsequently, in July 2017, some electrification works were cancelled altogether between Cardiff and Swansea, between Kettering, Nottingham and Sheffield, and between Windermere and Oxenholme. It was argued that greater capacity and environmental benefits could be achieved without the substantial cost and disruption associated with full electrification works by deploying new bi-modal trains. Bi-modal trains are hybrids capable of running on both electricity where overhead cables are available and diesel where they are not.

A change of track?

Although approximately 34% of Britain’s rail network was electrified in 2015-16, experts are sceptical about the potential for full electrification. Electrification coverage has increased over 2017 and into 2018, yet has clearly suffered major set-backs, primarily due to rising costs.

The Rail Minister’s speech last week reaffirmed this change in policy direction away from complete electrification, promoting the use of bi-modal models and the potential of hydrogen-fuelled trains. Train manufacturer Alstom has recently tested hydrogen trains in Germany, whose only waste product is steam. The attention on this new train technology supports the growing interest in hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel. Existing research suggests that by repurposing the gas network to use hydrogen the UK is well-placed to become a global leader in this area, with the Government announcing new investment in hydrogen infrastructure.

As highlighted in the recent industrial strategy white paper, the Government also supports the long-term goal of developing the battery storage industry in the UK, given its importance to the future energy system. Battery-powered, electric-traction ‘hybrid’ trains could support this economic ambition, with the Northern franchise expected to deliver such trains on the Windermere branch from 2021.

Counting the cost

Underpinning debates about these delays have been conflicting claims about the costs and benefits of electrification. The National Audit Office (NAO) has been highly critical of several aspects of electrification, particularly the optimistic cost and productivity savings. For example, the initial £1.7 billion cost of electrifying the London to Cardiff line was revised up to £2.8 billion in the Hendy review. Initial estimates of the economic benefits - such as £100 million a year for the South West region through reduced journey times and added seating – have subsequently been viewed sceptically.

By contrast, delays to track upgrades also carry costs. Both the NAO and House of Commons’ Transport Select Committee have pointed to the additional costs for rail companies - and subsequently the customer – from investment uncertainty, continuing to run inefficient diesel trains, and the necessity of switching to interim, bi-modal, solutions.  

Alongside cost, the benefits of reducing diesel usage to public health and the environment are substantial. Fully electric trains produce virtually no toxic air pollution at the point of use and provide a 20-60% reduction in total associated CO2 emissions relative to old diesel-only models, a figure falling constantly as electricity decarbonises.

By contrast, bi-modal train models are estimated to lower particulate matter pollution by 90% and nitrogen dioxide emissions by 50-59%.  Relative to old diesel-only trains, new bi-modal models would reduce total associated CO2 by approximately 12-30% by cutting diesel usage by 40-50% and improving engine efficiency.

Conclusion

With air pollution and climate change both significant issues of concern to the public, this week’s ministerial announcement, even if less ambitious than the previous policy of full electrification, should be welcomed.

Philip Box is a researcher at Bright Blue

The challenges of using evidence-based approaches to make effective transport policy

We know that walking and cycling are great ways to keep fit and prevent harmful pollution. Yet we also know that, for a variety of reasons, people aren’t always keen on them as a means of getting around. Sustrans is the charity that’s making it easier for people to walk and cycle. We're working with families, communities, policy-makers and partner organisations across the UK to encourage active travel.

We pride ourselves on basing our activities in support of active travel on a solid evidence base. We were very proud to have our work featured in a recent UN report as an example of good practice at the science-policy interface. But the connection between evidence, policy, and investment decisions in transport is sometimes hard to fathom.

Despite the strength of evidence on the benefits associated with walking and cycling (primarily relating to public health benefits of increased physical activity, but also in other areas such as reduced emissions, and improved air quality), it remains challenging to secure significant investment in active travel. The balance of policy and investment is heavily skewed towards ‘big infrastructure’ and technological innovation.

Some of the constraints that seem to dictate this poor translation of evidence into practice include: i) the limitations of cost–benefit analysis mechanisms; ii) too much faith in technological quick-fixes; and iii) the adherence to predict and provide policies. These constraints result in funding decisions such as a £15 billion Road Investment Strategy in England, whilst local streets receive very little funding for infrastructure that makes them better spaces for people to use.

In theory, UK transport investment decisions are made on the basis of economic appraisal and cost-benefit analysis. Newly published research on cost benefit analysis is clear about the gaps. Weaknesses in forecasting, disregard for benefit distribution and equity, and the application of dubious techniques (for example, valuing small time savings, and discounting) all bring into question the veracity of an approach that works within the realms of similar projects (for example, comparing one road scheme with another road scheme). But how does one treat a local walking and cycling network in relation to a road building scheme in this context?

The misplaced optimism in the technological quick-fixes of the future is also an area where huge evidence disconnects can be observed. A big part of the emphasis on investment in transport research and development is focussed on, for example:

• Electric vehicles – without recognition that on the one hand carbon emissions from energy generation are displaced (from the tailpipe to the power station chimney) rather than eliminated, and on the other hand 45% of particulate matter from traffic comes from brake and tyre wear (as distinct from fuel combustion), so poor air quality remains an issue.
• Autonomous vehicles – despite the lack of any evidence about either consumer demand or the impact on traffic patterns.
• 'Mobility-as-a-service’ provision – with scant regard for the fact that for many companies entering the market are doing so with the object of consumer data harvesting, rather than through any concern about mobility and accessibility.

The major risk is that we lose sight of what might already be possible. A new paper from a network of European cities and regions cooperating for innovative transport solutions on the future for autonomous vehicles expresses concern about the social distribution of impacts, and also concludes that  “if a transport authority wishes to pave the way for fewer private vehicles, bold planning decisions could already be made today to accelerate the uptake and dependence on public transport, cycling, walking.”

The adherence to predict and provide policies is a further misguided constraint in transport planning. In crudest terms, we look at past travel demand patterns, and we assume that the future will need ‘more of that’. This disregards any possibility of change, whether it be travel demand management, changing lifestyle patterns (for example, fewer younger people than ever own cars or even driving licenses), or even technological shift. The current Roads Investment Strategy does not reflect Government policies on environment and public health, does not align with changing societal patterns, and largely ignores the possible future automation of the fleet. A recently published research paper goes so far as to question whether continued adherence to predict and provide reveals an underlying, if unstated “real policy of car provision … and is the result of the influence of a powerful roads industry lobby”, whilst also noting that road building has little impact on economic activity, and cannot be relied on to kick-start the UK economy.

The net effect of these constraints is an evidence-policy-investment disconnect.

This disconnect in transport policy plays out very emphatically in air quality, where contradictions across policy areas introduce the risk of overall policy failure: pollution policies are not effectively integrated; transport policies either disregard air quality implications or are too heavily focussed on distant-future technology-led solutions; and health policies are too heavily focussed on remedial ‘cure’ work, rather than prevention. The continued investment in road ‘improvement’ does not seem to align well with other aspects of policy on air quality.

These contradictions need to be resolved if we are to have a coherent transport strategy. The effective application of evidence is crucial in enabling this to happen. Sustrans believes that active travel should lie at the heart of that transport strategy.

Dr Andy Cope is the Director of Insight at Sustrans

Connecting HGVs to the UK’s green energy journey: the future of gas is green and the future for HGVs is gas

For the past 200 years, gas has been a fuel that has offered the UK flexibility – be it for street lighting, industrial processes, power generation, or heat demand. During this time, the UK has built the world’s leading gas grid infrastructure, which today directly supplies the energy used to heat 85% of British homes. Faced with the challenge of climate change, the next stage in its evolution will be low-carbon or ‘green gas’.

Gas currently accounts nearly 50% of non-transport UK primary energy needs – primarily for power generation and heat. But it also offers an option to help decarbonise parts of the transport sector, particularly for vehicles like HGVs, where large powertrains are needed.

In addition to tackling carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the Government has recently come under real public pressure to toughen up its plans to tackle illegal levels of airborne pollutants in our towns and cities, most notably nitrous oxides (NOX) and particulate matter (PM) which cause and exacerbate a raft of debilitating health conditions. Action on the twin challenge of CO2 and air quality must permeate every level of government, and every department of government.

There are approximately 39 million vehicles on the roads in the UK and HGVs, buses and coaches make up less than 2% of that total. In total, a staggering 324 billion vehicle miles were travelled in the UK last year, with HGVs, buses and coaches contributing 6% of that total. This relatively small number of vehicles emit 20% of the UK transport’s greenhouse gases. A recent report by Element Energy showed that just 18 months on from its opening, a compressed natural gas (CNG) filling station at Leyland in Lancashire is cutting CO2 emissions from the HGVs that use it by 84%, thanks to its exclusive usage of renewable biomethane. These are not marginal gains, they represent transformation potential for a sector that is notoriously difficult to decarbonise. Forward-thinking companies like Waitrose, who use Leyland, are at the forefront of this transformation.

But there’s a by-product too, what economists would call a positive externality. Those 2% of vehicles, travelling just 6% of the miles in the UK, also emit 43% of road side nitrogen oxides. Given that there were an estimated 40,000 early deaths last year as a result of poor air quality, then it should be a cause for concern. Low-carbon vehicle trials showed NO2 emissions down 74% when using gas not diesel; NOx down 41% whilst Iveco (who make diesel and gas trucks) reckon a EuroVI gas HGV produces 96% fewer particulate matter emissions compared to its diesel counterpart.

There has been some action in London around ultra clean air zones, but wholesale switching from diesel to gas HGVs, whilst economically rational (with 30% savings on a pence/mile basis) has been too slow. Yes, there is a need for another 150 or so, strategically located gas-filling stations to give fleet operators a real choice, but the Government could do more to signal their support for the switch. And sadly, Conservative MPs are lagging behind Labour in support for regulation to encourage the switch from diesel (52% versus 73% support according to a Dods survey on behalf of EUA).

It will also need joined-up government, too. The Department of Transport is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions from HGVs; Defra have responsibility for air quality; BEIS look after energy policy; the Department for Health pay the bill for NHS treatment for those affected by poor air quality. It’s easy to see the flaws in this structure. Let’s hope there is leadership on this to deliver.

Mike Foster is the Chief Executive of the Energy and Utilities Alliance, a not-for-profit trade association that provides a leading industry voice to help shape the future policy direction within the energy sector

The views expressed in the article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue

Pedal power: why cycling should be at the centre of Government thinking

The Government is being taken to court yet again over its air quality plans. Environmental lawyers Client Earth have previously defeated both of the Government’s previous attempts at an air quality strategy. This third version has been reduced in scope to an ‘Air quality plan for nitrogen dioxide’, pending a fuller air quality strategy next year. Yet it too has been roundly criticised by transport planners, health professionals, environmentalists, and local authorities alike.

Everyone now agrees that previous governments’ support for diesel vehicles was a terrible mistake. We traded off marginal reductions in greenhouse gas emissions against increases in lethal pollutants. But action on pollution also needs to be linked to other issues too. A 2009 Cabinet Office report, on the costs of transport in English urban areas, found that the economic costs of air quality, congestion, road casualties and physical inactivity were all of a similar magnitude: around £10 billion annually.

Based on this evidence, surely it makes sense to invest in policies that tackle all of these costs by addressing their common cause: too much motor traffic. Transport planners since the 1960s have acted as if congestion was their number one challenge, with the other issues being secondary. Now we risk taking a similarly myopic view of air pollution, missing the bigger picture. Demonising diesels is now commonplace, with electric vehicles being seen as an environmental saviour. They are undoubtedly beneficial both for air quality and the climate – yet relying purely on electric vehicles would still leave us with congested and dangerous streets.

Investing in cycling and walking is, by contrast, a hugely cost-effective solution to all of these problems. Enabling people of all ages and abilities – young and old alike – to get around safely on foot or by bike would not only civilise our streets but would also halt the rise of obesity, type-two diabetes and other inactivity-related conditions, with all their human and economic costs.

But don’t cycle facilities cause congestion and pollution? After all, that’s what the papers keep saying!

Well, that might be true if you put your blinkers on and look only at the immediate impacts on motor vehicle journey times specifically along a street where new protected cycle lanes have just been built. But the opposite is true if you look at the wider road network, and consider the efficient movement of people (rather than motor vehicles), particularly in the longer term. A typical lane of a typical road can carry 2,000 cars per hour, or 14,000 bicycles. Reallocating motor vehicle space as space for cycling enables a lot more people to get from A to B efficiently, and reduces the amount of congestion and pollution they create throughout the rest of their journey. This benefit can be expected to easily outweigh the additional congestion faced by those who continue driving along the road which now has less motor vehicle capacity. London’s cycle superhighways are already carrying a lot more people than they could possibly have done under their previous configuration.

Moreover, this benefit is set to grow. People and businesses will continue adapting to changes in travel times, switching to the most efficient means of getting around. But the really big benefits come from creating an increasingly comprehensive cycle network. So far we only have a few disconnected lanes here and there. It will increase massively as our towns and cities start developing comprehensive cycle networks – as is the norm in countries like Denmark and the Netherlands.

So, what does the Government need to do to maximise the air quality and other benefits of cycling?

For one, it should require local authorities to draw up a Local Cycling and Walking Infrastructure Plan (LCWIP) as part of every Clean Air Zone. The Government’s recommended approach to planning comprehensive walking and cycling networks is a huge leap forward from our current tendency to provide disconnected cycle facilities where there happens to be a bit of spare space and a bit of spare cash. Yet at present, English local authorities are under no obligation to follow this guidance (unlike their Welsh counterparts), nor is there any financial support or incentives for those who do so. Changing this has to be part of the Government’s wider air pollution strategy.

It also needs to shift the balance of funding from inter-urban road schemes to healthy, efficient and sustainable local transport solutions. The conventional argument for road-building is that it supposedly benefits the economy. Yet this claim has been repeatedly questioned by leading transport academics. And it ignores the adverse economic impacts of a car-dominated transport system on the economies of our urban areas – as quantified in the Cabinet Office report mentioned earlier. Local authorities, combined authorities and ‘metro-mayors’ of all political persuasions are eager to invest in high-quality walking and cycling provision, recognising how this could improve the health of their streets, their residents and the local economy. A shift in funding would enable them to do so, yielding huge benefits.

Alongside this, the Government should coordinate a national framework for urban road user charging schemes, to cover both congestion and pollution impacts. The main reason why the Government keeps losing legal battles over air quality is because of its reluctance to support road user charging, despite having identified it as the most effective measure for tackling air pollution in the “shortest possible time” (as required by law). Instead, the Government has left councils not only to make the political justification for road user charging, but also to work out the charging processes and technologies. It claims that air pollution is a local problem. Yet surely a problem in over 200 locations needs to be seen as a national problem! In the name of efficiency, it needs to provide a national lead on tackling air pollution and congestion. There are huge economic, environmental, health and quality of life benefits to be gained from doing so.

The third is to back this up with financial incentives not only for people to trade in old diesel cars, but also for motor vehicle manufacturers to stop selling them. A scrappage scheme could be funded by a short-term increase in vehicle excise duty for the dirtiest motor vehicles.

Over time though, the financial signals need to shift towards reducing the use (rather than merely the ownership) of motor vehicles – starting in the most congested and polluted areas, but progressively tackling their energy and climate impacts too. Simply electrifying the vehicle fleet, without reducing our use of motor vehicles, would increase our energy demand, which would need to be met from renewables if reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are to be maximised. It could also massively reduce Treasury revenues – by between £9 billion and £23 billion, according to one estimate. There has to be a clear and transparent link between charging that deters the use of dirty and inefficient transport, and investment in efficient, healthy and clean alternatives such as walking and cycling.

Roger Geffen is the Policy Director at Cycling UK

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and are not necessarily shared by Bright Blue

A cool change is coming and business needs to get ready

The case for decisive action on diesel pollution gets stronger by the day. The main reason is of course the toll on public health. Every year, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) kill around 40,000 Britons, cause the loss of 6 million working days, and cost the economy up to £20 billion per year – equal to more than 16% of the NHS budget.

But pollution also threatens the health of companies.

While many companies are successfully adopting a variety of new technologies, others still have work to do – particularly operators of refrigerated vehicles. The industry continues to rely on decades-old diesel cooling technology that remains essentially unregulated and highly polluting; despite that, unlike the atmosphere in our major cities, the regulatory direction of travel is now clear.

Britain has been in breach of EU air pollution standards since 2010, and the courts have twice ordered the government to strengthen its plans. The European Commission has given Britain a “final warning” to act within two months or face big fines and referral to the European Court of Justice. The political momentum means regulation will tighten regardless of Brexit, and will almost certainly include a network of low emission zones in major cities and possibly a diesel scrappage scheme. The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has just announced a £10 Toxicity-charge (T-charge) for the most polluting cars from October this year.

However, the most polluting engines on the road are not being used to drive cars or trucks. The worst emitters are in fact the secondary diesel engines used to provide cooling on refrigerated trucks and trailers. Analysis by Dearman, the clean cold technology developer, has shown that these independent transport refrigeration units (TRUs) can emit six times as much NOx and 29 times as much PM as the Euro VI propulsion engine dragging them around. Compared to the official emissions limits of a modern Euro 6 diesel car, the TRU emits up to 93 times more NOx and 165 times more PM.  

These disproportionately high emissions evaded the radar for many years, but are now beginning to be recognised by policymakers. TRUs were mentioned in both the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ (Defra) Clean Air Zone Framework published last autumn, and the Clean Air Bill, a Private Member’s Bill tabled by Labour MP Geraint Davies. Both make clear that TRUs will be covered by the new national network of Clean Air Zones. Defra talks of “encouraging the upgrade of refrigeration units on cold chain vehicles to the least polluting options”, while the Clean Air Bill calls for TRU use to be restricted in “specified urban areas”.

TRUs are vulnerable to regulation not only because they are highly polluting, but also because they are few in number. If the 84,000-strong UK TRU fleet were replaced with zero-emission alternatives, allowing for the total fleet mix it would equate to taking approximately 4 million Euro 6 diesel cars off the road. Come election time, businesses don’t have a vote, private motorists generally do.

TRUs may be relatively scarce, but they are hardly low profile. Each year in Britain they transport food worth £52 billion, often operating in residential areas or busy high streets. It can only be a matter of time before people realise that, while they are about to be penalised for driving a car, TRUs are operating on our streets unhindered by regulation or penalty.

Imagine the public fury when people realise that independent TRUs are also entitled to run on half price ‘red’ diesel. So not only do they spew much more pollution than cars - even old cars -  but taxpayers subsidise them to do so!

TRUs are allowed to run on red diesel – bizarrely - because they are classed as ‘non-road mobile machinery’, even though they operate on a truck or trailer. But there is no conceivable economic justification for continuing to subsidise such a mature and highly polluting technology against new zero-emission competitors. Britain is one of only a handful of countries in the EU that still permits it. This loophole is unlikely to survive the intensified scrutiny the introduction of Clean Air Zones is likely to bring.

The TRU red diesel subsidy is also vulnerable because it prevents new clean cold technologies from taking off in the UK. The government has invested tens of millions of pounds into supporting clean cold technologies through Innovate UK and the Research Councils, and is unlikely to want to squander it by maintaining perverse fossil fuel subsidies that stop these innovations being taken up in their home market.

Air pollution regulations will soon be toughened to meet the scale of the challenge, and refrigerated transport will not escape. At some point operators will be forced to act by the combination of rising public awareness and regulatory pressure. Companies that want to demonstrate they are responsible corporate citizens would do well to embrace this opportunity early, not as the laggard who did the right thing only when compelled by regulation.

Happily, cold logistics operators might also find that doing the right thing is also good for business. Some of the newly designed zero-emission TRUs materially outperform conventional diesel systems delivering additional benefits. A win for business, customers, the environment and public health – now wouldn’t that be cool?

Professor Toby Peters was the co-founder of Dearman, was recently appointed Visiting Professor in Transformational Innovation for Sustainability at Heriot-Watt University, and is Visiting Professor in Power and Cold Economy at the University of Birmingham

An opportunity to cut harmful air pollution from coal

Coal in the UK is in terminal decline. The fuel that powered the industrial revolution and has been a staple of our economy for over a century is on its way out. Recent Carbon Brief analysisfound that last year coal use more than halved. This in turn contributed to an impressive six per cent annual fall in carbon emissions. Excluding the general strikes in the 1920s, emissions are now at the lowest level since the Victorian era.

But the job of phasing out coal from our energy mix is not complete. There are still eight coal-fired power stations on the British grid, with a combined capacity of around 14GW. In 2015, Bright Blue recommended that the Government regulate to close these last coal plants in the early 2020s. A few months later, the government adopted this policy and has just now finished consulting on its proposals to force their closure by the end of 2025.

This sharp decrease has several probable causes: anticipation of the 2025 coal phase-out, the abundance of relatively cheap gas, the build-out of zero-marginal-cost renewables, and the UK's 'Carbon Price Support', which charges power generators for each tonne of carbon they emit. But there is another factor that has helped to make the economics of coal challenging, over which EU Ministers are soon to make a decision at the European Council: the EU's 'Industrial Emissions Directive'.

The Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) came into force at the start of 2016 and its aim is to reduce harmful air pollution from industry. It sets legal limits on the levels of nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, and dust that large plants can emit. Of the highest emitting 30 plants affected by the IED, 26 are coal-fired power stations.

The damage to public health from coal is significant: across all EU Member States, air pollution from coal is estimated to contribute to nearly 23,000 deaths each year with a health bill ranging from €32bn to €62bn. But the IED is not realising all the promised emissions savings. Over half of coal plants in the EU have been given special 'derogations' by the EU, meaning that they do not need to apply them.

Under the policy, national governments must issue permits to all plants affected by the IED. These permits are issued with reference to guidelines that are set out in the EU's 'Best Available Technique Reference Document' (BREF). This document is currently being reviewed, and the European Council is soon to vote on proposals to amend the BREF that would make the application of the IED by national governments more stringent.

Put simply, if these proposals are accepted, many more plants will have to choose whether to make expensive upgrades in order to cut their emissions, or simply to close. The upgrade costs could be substantial: in the UK, government-commissioned research found that for a 500 MW coal plant, the cost of compliance would typically be between £50m and £75m.

So in many cases, this investment decision will lead to plant closures, with the investment generating insufficient returns to justify the costs. The three factors named above (cheap and plentiful gas, zero-marginal-cost renewables, and carbon pricing) assist and reinforce this dynamic.

With the UK's support at the European Council, it is expected that the proposals will be passed through qualified majority voting. However, without the UK's support, they are vulnerable to defeat. For this reason, the decision of UK Ministers is absolutely critical to the pace of the coal phase-out in Europe.

Not only would these regulations help to hasten the closure of the remaining coal plants in the UK. But they could help to bring about the end of coal generation throughout EU. The benefits would be great. In relation to climate, it would greatly reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions, for which coal is responsible for 16 per cent of the total. In relation to air pollution, the proposed new BREF would reduce the number of premature deaths from coal-related air pollution to under 9,000.

Supporting and championing these tougher environmental regulations is an opportunity for the UK to demonstrate international leadership post-Brexit. By committing to phasing out coal by 2025, the UK became the first industrialised country to burn coal for electricity and the first to commit to closing its coal fleet. We have recommended before that this significant domestic legacy should be leveraged internationally, in order to make a major contribution to reducing global emissions and tackling climate change.

In its coal phase-out impact assessment, the government listed UK international climate change leadership as one of the policy's main benefits. In the European Council, the UK has an opportunity to realise some of this benefit. It should seize it.

Sam Hall is a senior researcher at Bright Blue

This article first appeared on BusinessGreen 

Could a diesel scrappage scheme solve the air quality issue?

Last week, it was reported that the Department for Transport is considering introducing a diesel scrappage scheme. Under this policy, the government would give cashback to motorists who trade in their old polluting diesel vehicle. A diesel scrappage scheme would help to accelerate the shift away from diesel vehicles, removing one of the biggest sources of harmful air pollution from the roads for good.

What’s the problem?

Readers of this blog will be familiar with the issue: each year around 40,000 premature deaths in the UK are linked to poor air quality. A recent EU report found that in the UK six million workdays were lost each year to air pollution and that the health-related externalities totalled €28 billion. Air pollution is damaging people’s health, and adding costs to public services and businesses in the process. The source of the problem in pollution hotspots is road transport, which produces over 95% of the toxic fumes in these areas. And diesel vehicles in particular are responsible, as they emit many times more nitrogen dioxide than petrol alternatives.

The Government urgently needs to find a solution to this problem, following their latest defeat in the High Court last year. The judge ruled the Government’s air quality plan was inadequate. The Government now has until April 2017 to produce a new draft plan to bring the UK into full legal compliance by 2019 at the latest. This strategy must be confirmed by July 2017. Air pollution is also being driven up the agenda by the Government’s decision to allow a third runway at Heathrow. Local campaigners say they are planning to use the air quality concerns to block the project in the courts.

Context for the scrappage scheme

The UK had a vehicle scrappage scheme in 2009, introduced in response to the financial crisis. Rather than an environmental measure, it was a stimulus for the domestic car industry, which had seen new vehicle registrations fall by 30% between the first quarter of 2008 and the same time in 2009. Under the scheme, vehicles over 10 years old could be scrapped in return for a £2,000 discount off a new vehicle. The Government allocated a £400 million budget for the scheme.

The idea of a scrappage scheme for polluting diesel vehicles has been around for a while. But, until now, the Government has always been dismissive on the grounds of cost. In April last year, a source from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs was quoted saying that there was "no proportionate way to appropriately target such a measure to the areas where it would be most needed and it would be prohibitively expensive, as well as an ineffective use of resource to offer a scheme indiscriminately".

Factors to consider when designing the scheme

The effectiveness of a diesel scrappage scheme will depend on its precise configuration. There are three issues in particular that the Government has to consider: first, how it is going to pay for it; second, how it is going to target it geographically to ensure the scheme eases pollution in hotspots; third, what types of vehicle trade will be eligible for a grant.

First, a diesel scrappage scheme has the potential to be very expensive, unless it is part of a suite of policies that is revenue neutral. One suggestion is to increase Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) on new diesel vehicles to fund the scrappage scheme. This would also serve to disincentivise purchases of new diesels, most of which continue to fail to achieve EU air pollution limits when tested under real-world conditions. Another approach could be to levy a “toxicity charge” on motorists entering pollution hotspots in old, polluting vehicles, like the Mayor of London is introducing in the capital later this year. This levy would ensure motorists pay the full social costs of their pollution, as well as providing a revenue to fund charges.

Second, a diesel scrappage scheme must be targeted to remove dirty vehicles from where pollution is illegal. If an old diesel car that only ever drives around rural English villages is taken off the road, then it won’t help bring cities like London and Birmingham into compliance with the law. One approach could be to restrict eligibility for the scheme to vehicles registered to properties in or near a pollution hotspot. However, there would be no guarantee that these will be the only vehicles travelling into hotspots. The Government could also explore ways of linking the scheme to its new Clean Air Zone network so that the cashback is available to those who are affected by their introduction.  

Third, the Government must carefully consider which vehicle trades are eligible for cashback. One condition could be that the old diesel must be exchanged for an ultra-low emission vehicle, such as a pure electric car. But some drivers of old diesel cars may want to scrap their car altogether and switch to just cycling or using public transport. Others may still need a vehicle with an internal combustion engine because of the long distances they are driving. But while a petrol car would reduce air pollution relative to a diesel, it would not help cut carbon emissions, another important government policy objective. The less flexible the scheme is, the fewer old diesels it will successfully take off the road.

Conclusion

If implemented correctly, this policy could form a big part of the Government’s response to the air pollution problem. It should complement smart regulation, such as an increase in the number of low emission zones. Bright Blue has campaigned for central government to devolve more powers and funding to English cities to enable them to set up low emission zones in pollution hotspots.

Replacing diesels in the vehicle pool is a major challenge: there are over 11 million diesel cars on the roads in the UK, or 38% of the whole car fleet. In terms of new vehicles, sales of diesels have started to decrease, with the most recent data showing a 4% drop relative to the same month in 2016. This is gradually unwinding efforts by policymakers since the 1990s that encouraged diesel over petrol, because of perceived lower carbon emissions. For instance, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown cut vehicles taxes for diesels in the 2001 Budget.

The benefits of this shift away from diesel are broader than the purely environmental. As the industrial strategy confirmed last month, ultra-low emission vehicles are a priority sector for the Government, and crucial to the UK’s long-term economic prosperity. Now is the time for the Government to be ambitious with its domestic policy framework, so that it can establish a leading position in these new technologies.

Sam Hall is a researcher at Bright Blue

A turbo-charge statement for electric vehicles

This week’s Autumn Statement brought some good news for proponents of electric vehicles. With lower than expected tax receipts and a worsening economic outlook due to Brexit, the Chancellor did not have much cash to give out. The new spending that he did announce was focused on infrastructure, a long-term approach that he hoped would be rewarded by increased tax revenues in the future.

This is intended to tackle one of the fundamental weaknesses of the UK economy that the Chancellor rightly identified in his speech: Poor productivity growth. ‘Productivity’ measures how much economic value is created from a fixed period of labour. Strong productivity growth signals long-term wage rises and economic growth. Concerningly, under this crucial metric, the UK lags well behind Germany and the US by some 30 percentage points. Infrastructure investment helps to improve productivity. For instance, investment in transport can reduce workers’ journey times, freeing up space in the day for more economically productive activity.

The Autumn Statement measures

This is where electric vehicles come in. As part of the £23 billion National Productivity Investment Fund, £390 million of funding over the next four years will be spent on developing future transport technologies. This includes £80 million for electric vehicle charging infrastructure and £150 million of support for low emission buses and taxis.

In addition to this new spending, there were several tax changes to incentivise uptake of electric vehicles. Companies will be given 100% first-year capital allowances for investments in new charging infrastructure until 2019, allowing businesses to deduct the cost of new charge points from their corporate tax bill. And although the Chancellor heavily pruned back salary sacrifice schemes in his statement, the perk was retained for schemes supporting electric vehicles. There were also changes to company car tax, creating lower bands for electric vehicles.

What should come next?

Bright Blue has two further policy recommendations that would drive uptake of electric vehicles, at little additional cost to the Treasury. First, the current plans for five Clean Air Zones in Derby, Nottingham, Birmingham, Leeds, and Southampton should be expanded. Earlier this week, the Government was told by the High Court it had until April 2017 to draw up a new draft air quality plan, as the previous one took too long to bring the UK into compliance with the legal limits.

We recommend devolving more funding and powers to city councils to enable all of them to set up Clean Air Zones where pollution is a problem. As well as charging the most polluting vehicles, Clean Air Zones will give preferential access to city centres to electric vehicles, such as priority at traffic lights and designated parking spaces. Academics have found that, in Germany, where there is a national network of over 70 low emission zones, owners of older, polluting vehicles have traded them in for cleaner ones. So a network of Clean Air Zones could stimulate the electric vehicle market in the UK too.

Second, this week’s Autumn Statement extended the lifetime of the UK Guarantees Scheme until at least 2026. Under this policy, the Treasury guarantees loans to private sector investors, giving them access to capital to fund new infrastructure. Since it was launched under the Coalition Government, it has given out £1.8 billion of guarantees, supporting over £4 billion of investment. We believe these loan guarantees could also be offered to drive investment in a network of charging points for electric vehicles.

Why is this important?

Accelerating the electric vehicle revolution offers many potential benefits, in addition to improving air quality. The Government is currently drafting its Emission Reduction Plan, which will set out how the legally-binding carbon budgets will be met. Transport now has the highest carbon emissions of any sector in the economy. What’s more, these emissions have actually risen for the past two years. Electrifying the car fleet would help the government make progress in decarbonising this stubbornly high-emitting sector.

Boosting electric vehicle uptake is also likely to be a key plank of the Government’s forthcoming industrial strategy. The UK is already the largest market for electric vehicles in Europe. Nissan, for instance, has invested over £420 million in the UK to build its electric vehicle, the Leaf. In 2015, the number of electric cars on the roads globally surpassed a million, more than doubling the total in 2014. This was also the year when electric vehicles’ market share of new purchases in the UK rose above 1%. Electric vehicles are a major economic opportunity for the UK to seize.

Electric cars are still near the start of their journey. But, as a result of the Chancellor’s measures this week, they have moved a few miles further towards the destination.

Sam Hall is a researcher at Bright Blue